Who will win Microsoft or Apple?

[alex]

Welcome the the second big battle between Microsoft and Apple.  In the first round, Apple started the personal computer revolution with the Apple 2.  After a fierce battle that almost left Apple bankrupt, Microsoft emerged as the dominant force.

This is round 2 - who will win?  Tell Zune Bunker what you think!

Will it be the iPod with it's big lead and great UI?

Or will the Zune emerge as the dominant force?

[martha]

iPod will kick ass..  Zune will be DOA

[Mike]

Martha,

You are clueless.  Once again, MS is going to kill Apple.  It's just like last time. 

The first gen machines ran cpm, then Apple took over the second gen machines and then MS did it's thing and took over the third gen.

Same thing happened to visicalc and lotsu.

MS has a way of just dominating 3rd gen technology.

[homeboy57]

i  have an ipod video u2 and truyly i think i made a bad decision byuing it now that the zune is coming out, i mean the zunes gonna have radio and can share some files with other zunes and the screen seems bigger and of course its microsoft so apple's gonna get their a... kicked

[plinko]

Well, Apple might have to step things up a bit, but the lame Zune looks like an old 1980's computer! It also looks like they copied the ipod, only badly. But I have to say that people who use PCs don't seem to care much about design, because if they did they would have a mac. So, the wi-fi aspect with regard to sharing music and getting radio plus the .5 inch bigger screen might entice SOME people. It just seems like a cheap knock-off of the beautiful ipod. And, then Microsoft never cares about people with Macs, because I've heard the Zune does not work on both PC and Mac platforms...only PC. That is stupid. For those who really care about design, ease of use, cutting edge technology and innovation apple will always win. If you want some cheap, boxy copycat you'll probably want the Zune. Let's face it...it isn't even a cool name. Anyone who has switched from a PC to a Mac will tell you that the Mac and PC are like night and day and the mac is infinitely more user friendly, fun and powerful. It will probably be the same story with the Zune and the iPod. People still buy PCs and run windows...who knows why when there are wonderful macs for sale out there. I couldn't tell ya.

[xoom]

it's too early to say who will win or lose, but, one thing seems clear, if iPod is ever going to be dethroned, it's going to be by Zune.  but, it's going to be a fierce battle.  and we'll have to wait and see if apple has learned anything from the last battle, and whether microsoft can "steal" another market.

either way, we're already seeing the benefits of the new competition--apple just dropped its price on the 30GB iPod, and microsoft cut its price on (the unreleased) Zune from $284 to $229.  so, it seems, for now... the consumer is winning.

with all that said, i cast my vote for Zune, because (like a lot of people) i've never really liked apple's smug and elitist attitude (as in their current "i'm a mac" commercials); and, so, i'll be happy to buy a Zune.

either way, it looks like things are about to get interesting... 

[SNK]

I believe this will be just like the personal computer battle, only opposite.  The only reason people use crappy PCs is because they were released first.  They were released first, therefor people became used to them because they were the only personal computers with GUI and what not available on the market at that time, and then when Apple II came out people were to lazy to switch, even the Apple II was superior.  In the mp3 player battle Apple will win even if the Zune is superior, just because the iPod came out first.

[alex]

While this battle may turn out differently, I think you have your history wrong.

Apple II came out way before the PC and was the dominant personal computer of its time.  When I showed up for work in September 1983 right out of college the computer room at my office was filled with Apple II machines.  We got the first PC sometime later that year and then the PC started getting traction, especially the Compaq lugables.  It didn't have a GUI interface.  That was not really popularized until Apple released the Mac.  My firm then put a Mac on everyone's desk.  It wasn't until later that Windows came out and then Apple seemed to lose badly.

[ThePeterFilesBlogOComedy]

Apple created the GUI interface. MS copied it. Apple sued and won. MS still pays Apple a royalty. I believe.

Some of Apple's problems had to do with management "growing pains". Others have been attributed to MS business practices.

In terms of "who will win" - arguably Apple has already won because whatever happens now the Apple brand has been refreshed in the marketplace not only for music players but for notebook and desktop systems.

While in those latter markets, the "Switch" markets, they still are a small share of the market, each percentage point they grab may be small for MS but huge for Apple.

MS is even more vulnerable because the new Dual Core technology Apple has introduced is blazingly fast and intel based solving many software compatability design problems.

Things have not been helped by the death of "Longhorn" and the long wait for "Vista" which seems to be an attempt to mirror the OS X interface.  There may be more to it than that but one of the expert videos out there on YouTube.com made that comment. Sorry, can't remember his name.

As for Zunes file management advantages, the RIAA is very likely to be very, very upset. The number of those using this feature for only home-made files is likly to be small so expect a big response, unless it is an artifact of their music store's licensing arangement.

In terms of the more global question: Zune vs Ipod a lot depends on:

-How Apple responds to Zune pricing and final features (don't count Apple out for some big surprises.
-When and to what degree Manufacturers can respond to demand for Zune units.
-How the public perceives the ergonomics and aesthetic qualities of the Zune - it seems rather big and bulky to me, rather like the boxyness of the Handspring Visor Prism vs the Palm Pilot, despite the cool graphics, the Zune does not have the soft edge sleekness of the iPod. Again, some may not care about this as one board member noted.
-The Zune's battery consumption rate. With all that going on, how long does it last?
-How hot does the Zune get - if at all.
-Is there significant danger of cracking a screen that large easily? How long is the screen covered? Is there an equivelant of the Apple care replacement plan?
-Will the Zune software interface with software packages for slideshows and movie making as the iPod does with the iLife suite? Will its store interface act as a whole media center as the free iTunes package does? Will the Zune store be able to buy from the apple store? Will the Zune suppliers give away free media each week as Apple does?
-Is there any risk of MS running into a patent lawsuit with Apple over its click-wheel as it did over the whole windows interface? Could this be a Blackberry like risk to the whole device?
-In fairness to the individual who pointed out that the Zune was not Mac compatible, Itunes  and the iPod were not originally available in Windows formats either. Whether MS chooses to compete with Mac on its home ground is another point.  With consumer investment in Mac Libraries in the (what hundreds of millions, billions?) huge $'s getting market share back will require letting people get some use out of their already purchased media.

In any case, the Zune will,  must capture some of the market. But Apple's dominance in this market has come about for a reason - high quality product planning by smart people providing great customer service. Apple got there fastest with the mostest and the bestest.

Even if Zune becomes wildly popular, MS has already lost the major battle because the Zune is at the high end of the market and Apple's media sales are probably dominant in the Shuffle - Nano end, which are/will probably remain at a much lower price point than the Zune.

Will I mind having a 5th gen 30 gb iPod nano when the Zune comes out?

No way. I love how seamlessly it interfaces with my iLife suite, and I don't even have the current iLife yet. And that's a problem for Zune. With my apple care plan if my iPod dies I can just get it replaced for TWO YEARS. Wonder if they have that.

Peter, Technical Reviewer and Button Pusher
The Peter Files Blog of Comedy, Satire, Commentary, and Technology Review

[ThePeterFilesBlogOComedy]

especially the Compaq lugables. 

Those Compaq lugables, the 40 lb. (it seemed) predacessor to the laptop, with a 5 inch screen taking a 5 inch truly floppy disk, but favored by contractors who traveled from site to site may have put a subtle push in the Dos direction in those early days when many were still using Visicalc and Displaywrite 4 and other predacessors to Lotus, Excel, WordPerfect and Word, respectively.

I remember a contactor showing up and dropping it on the table between a co-worker and I as part of the end product of a model "delivery". We got to keep the compaq too which meant that we did not have to sign up for time on the PC under the clock like the others! Wooo-weeee. Maybe 10 of us had been sharing it then.

The Original Macintosh had been out for three or four years by then and was far better than this DOS 3 or 4 behemeouth, but we took what we could get, because anything was better than producing documents on the mainframe. In the land of SAS and CMS.



Peter, Technical Reviewer and Button Pusher
The Peter Files Blog of Comedy, Satire, Commentary, and Technology Review

[martha]

You rock Peter, the iPod is King.

Also I just saw that the Zune is going to be fat, fat, fat.



More pics at http://www.jakeludington.com/zune/20061001_zune_and_ipod_photo_comparison.html

[SNK]

Sorry, it was Mac.  But Microsoft did get theirs out first.  They copied Apple, put out a crappier version first, and it succeeded.

[kgoodson88]

see the thing is.... Apple is starting to come out as the big guy. has anyone ever see the apple commercials? apple can do everything that a pc can do now-a-days. the zune is just going to be another windows based object that will end up getting all of the windows pc viruses. and the whole wi-Fi thing is going to kind of be bad. think about it. someone makes a virus and say attatches it to a song file. then you download it off of the internet and put it on your zune player, then someone eles comes along and uses the Wi-Fi to access you zune player, they play the infected song and then BAM!!! there player has the same virus that you have. and plus anything made by microsoft is always buggy and sooner or later it will crash and you might loose all of your music, so make the smart choice and but an apple.

[kgoodson88]

I believe this will be just like the personal computer battle, only opposite.  The only reason people use crappy PCs is because they were released first.  They were released first, therefor people became used to them because they were the only personal computers with GUI and what not available on the market at that time, and then when Apple II came out people were to lazy to switch, even the Apple II was superior.  In the mp3 player battle Apple will win even if the Zune is superior, just because the iPod came out first.

if you were to know anything about computers then you would know that the apple computer was the first to come out in the time. the only way that the pc was beating apple was that the pc was cheaper at the time the apple was. and apple created the GUI... FIRST only makes more money at the time, BEST makes more moner overall

[downtownDale]

iPod will win.  iTunes is much better and buying per song is better than buying with Microsoft points.  Also, the only way to share songs is if someone else has the unit.  Microsoft is again placing the responsibility of its total and complete functionality on the end-user.

The iPod is smaller and just a "cooler" thing to have.  I don't think we have a Coke vs. Pepsi debate here.  It's more like Coke vs. New Coke -- and we know what happened to New Coke.

Someone said that Apple is elitist - I disagree.  Microsoft tends to convey an attitude that they are just better at everything - which would be great if it were true.  Think of all the things you purchase in life and expect to work "out of the box."  Microsoft products are not like this.  Would you want to buy a car full well knowing the manufacturer was going to release a "steering and brakes update" four months later?  Hello Service Pack 2!